Precipitation Outlook And 3 PM Fire Update

I have been contacted by a few people in evacuated areas who remembered during the 416 fire when I provided detailed maps to those evacuees. I am more than happy to do that for anyone who has been evacuated. I can zoom to ground level and let them know how many feet/yards/miles the fire line is to their property. Click the contact button, and let me know the property address. If you know someone who has been evacuated who does not follow me and wants me to do this, send me their address and email address and I will email it to them.

As far as the fire goes, so far as of 3 pm, not a lot to talk about. MODIS and VIIRS satellite data have not shown any new growth. But I have to be careful here. Yesterday I ticked off the fire gods saying it was a boring fire day, then Bondad blew up. Fortunately, so many teams are here they worked together and stopped it quickly.

I have been unimpressed with the way the models have been handling the wind speeds and wind gusts. This is not a parameter that I dig deep on, on a daily basis. I spend more time with it when a storm is approaching. But so far, in the absence of any storms, all of the models have been over forecasting the winds, especially early in the day. So that has been the good news. Tonight a storm system and accompanying area of low pressure will move from Eastern Idaho into Wyoming. A cold front will drape into NW Colorado which will tighten the pressure gradient and possibly lead to higher winds. We’ll see.

On Thursday the flow will transition into a more westerly component, which we have not seen since the fire started.

Looking ahead the next 10 days do not look great for precipitation. Unfortunately, this is normal for June, our driest month of the year.

Here is the Euro model’s 10-day precipitation forecast.


Here is the Canadian model


And here is the GFS


Thank you for following, and thank you for supporting the page. As I said if you have questions regarding fire perimeter proximity to your property click the contact button and I will email you back. The new data should be in, between midnight and 3 am. So I will respond after that.

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