The “cold” front moved through most of the state overnight. The main trough associated with it is now in far northwest Colorado and is forecasted to move east through the state tomorrow. As the energy with the trough moves east, it could spark off some convection in the area. Mostly dry thunderstorms below 10,000 feet. While I expect most of the action to be north of Electra Lake, I am already starting to see some higher CAPE values in the lower elevations from Mancos to Pagosa, and south to the NM border.
Tomorrow morning, CAPE will be the first thing I will look at and I will post a weather update after the morning fire update. The fire update will be out early and the weather update out will between 8-9 pm.
I still don’t see any real precipitation in the lower and mid-elevations before July. Here are the ensemble models for the 51 member Euro family, and the 21 member GFS family between now and July 3rd.
GFS
That is .21″ for DRO
Euro
That is .03 for Cortez and 0 for DRO. Both of these models show the monsoon is absent for the next two weeks even in southern AZ and NM.