Hot And Dry Conditions Persist

The East Canyon fire was 53% contained as of last night. To the best of my knowledge, a scan was not even ordered. The winds were extremely cooperative this week and the team made excellent progress very quickly.

All week I have been watching what has now been named the Sand Creek fire. It showed up on VIIRS satellite detection on Monday. I didn’t talk about it because it wasn’t growing and it is in a very isolated area of south-central Hinsdale County 21 miles northwest of Pagosa. In the last couple of days, the fire grew to over 50 acres and a type 3 team is taking over.

Here are a couple of satellite maps to orient you on its location.

pgosc

scvall

sand creek

I used Vallecito and Pagosa only to show you the location. At this point, the fire poses no risk to either area, and it is highly unlikely it will.

Hot and dry conditions will be the story for quite a while. The only chance for a little rain will be over the highest peaks generally above 11,000 feet.

Here is an extended look at our temperatures and precipitation. If you have followed me through a winter, you know that I usually only use long term models to look for trends, not predict accurate totals. My other caveat is that the last couple of years has shown the Euro model to have a warm bias in its long terms runs. Unfortunately, it is the best source I have. The US equivalent model the CFSv2 is very inconsistent and unreliable for nearly any purpose.

Here are the 7-day temperature anomalies showing above-average temperatures.

7daytemps

Here are the 10-day precipitation anomalies showing below-average precipitation.

euro10day

Here are the 32-day temperature anomalies.

32daytemps

Here are the 32-day precipitation anomalies.

32dayprecip

Here are the 46-day temperature anomalies.

euro46daytemps

Here are the 46-day precipitation anomalies.

46day

As I said earlier I use this long-term model to spot trends. There are two model runs per week, even though this model is better than its US counterpart it has problems of its own, namely the warm bias I mentioned. When I zoom this out to national look you can see the discrepancies for temperatures in the midwest from the previous run to the latest.

Previous run 7-day temperature anomaly June 21st-28th.

ecmwf_weeklies_avg_conus_t2m_f_anom_7day_3388800_1

Latest run 7-day temperature anomaly June 21st-28th.

ecmwf_weeklies_avg_conus_t2m_f_anom_7day_3388800(2)

That is a 7-10 degree temperature correction in the midwest region in one model run. This shows how difficult long term forecasting can be.

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