As I mentioned Friday morning, today looks potentially a little more active than yesterday which wouldn’t be difficult because most of the activity Friday was suppressed. Today, the sun is out and the CAPE is forecasted to be higher than yesterday and all of the moisture is still in place. There also appears to be a small disturbance moving across the western slope which could add some instability this afternoon.
Here is the CAPE from noon to 1pm
From 2-3 pm it maxes out. A few areas approach 1100.
3-4 pm. You can see below that Cortez and Durango start dropping and Pagosa hits its max. This leads me to believe the model is anticipating the piece of energy in the atmosphere tracking across.
The model does not show widespread significant precipitation except for a bullseye over the La Platas and Hermosa Wilderness. Depending on how that goes it could lead to debris flows in the burn scar areas.
Simulated future radar actually shows a storm retraining (remaining in place) over that area for a couple hours from 1-4 pm.
My best guess for rain in the lower and mid-elevations this afternoon would be anywhere people are enjoying outdoor activities and backyard barbecues.