Dog Days Of Durango

I don’t hear the term “dog days of summer” anymore so if you are young you may not have heard it. It refers to ancient Greece when Sirius (the dog star) rose in alignment with the sun and they believed it contributed to the heat this time of year. The period lasts from roughly the end of June to the end of July. Of course, this theory was proven false many years ago.

I have been very busy this week, and there has not been a lot to talk about so I have not posted. If the weather was more active I would have found the time to keep everyone updated.

The short term looks very hot and very dry. Saturday and Sunday we should see the hottest temperatures of the season. Saturday we will see mid to upper 90s below 7,000 feet. Mid elevations will reach the lower 90s and Purgatory may reach the upper 80s.

A large trough will be coming onshore which may trigger some convection Sunday afternoon. At this time I don’t see any chance of rain reaching the ground with the exception of mountain ridge tops.

It looks like we will be locked in this pattern until around July 21st. Several long-term models show us evolving into a more moist pattern.

Here is the long term Canadian multi-model run showing the 7-day precipitation total ending July 25th.

Capture

cmc

 

Here is the same data run from the US GEFS multi-model.

Capture

gfs

The Euro also picks up on the trend but it will be a couple days before we can track the same period because its model does not have as long a term of run time. What is encouraging here is that if you look at where the precipitation is accumulating you can see that it appears to a monsoon signature to it. What is also encouraging is that all of the models are picking up on it.

So hang in there, it takes a lot to break a dry pattern or a wet pattern because soil moisture results in feedback. In other words, dry soils inhibit moisture and wet/saturated soils encourage precipitation. Thanks for your support and for following I will update again on Sunday

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