August has really flown by despite the boring patch of weather we have had. I haven’t posted for a number of reasons. The primary reason I have not posted is there has been very little to talk about. The monster ridge continues to shut off the SW Monsoon leaving us with very meager chances of precipitation from high heat based thunderstorms, not the deep monsoonal flow we desire this time of year. The other reason I haven’t posted is the Company I use to write these updates decided to changed their editor to an “easier” format. No explanation on how to use the new one and I am an old guy who liked the old format after using it all of this time. I tried and could not figure out the new “easy” version. Fortunately, all I needed to do was upgrade my “premium” subscription to a business subscription for triple the cost and it allows me to revert back to the “classic” editor. As you will see, I can’t get a decent image to load! I am close to going on a rant here so time to get to the weather.
Today should be similar to yesterday. If you were lucky enough to get a little shower yesterday, chances are some of that moisture will be recycled and fall as a brief shower today as the atmosphere heats up. Here are the CAPE values for this afternoon.
Looking ahead, I see no signs of a return to monsoonal moisture for quite a while. That being said the eastern Pacific is finally starting to get stirred up after one of the slowest starts to a tropical season ever–opposed to the Atlantic which is going into a very active pattern.
Hurricane Genevieve is now a large category 4 hurricane churning off the coast of Mexico. Depending on its path, it may bring up some moisture close enough to drift into our area later this week.
Any chance of busting this drought we’ll have to come from tropical origins. Either recycled moisture or actual remnants of a recurving tropical storm.
There are a couple of opportunities coming to hopefully get some of that moisture close enough to affect us.
The following model runs show the percentage chances of a tropical depression forming over the next 3-6 and 5-8 days.
3 to 6 days
5 to 8 days
It looks like I am going to have to get a hold of support and find out what is going on with the image quality. Thanks for your patience while I figure this out!