Update On Next Week’s Storm Potential

The NWS finally briefly made mention of the potential storm next week in its daily Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO).

538 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2020

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO.

“DAY ONE
TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING MUCH COOLER AIR TO THE REGION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.”

The Euro is still trying to find its way. The GFS is still playing this as a classic Front Range upslope snow event. The truth will probably be somewhere in the middle.

I am not trying to over-hype the event, I don’t know what will happen. What I do know is that it is Labor Day weekend. With the excessive heat people are going to want to escape to the high country. Before I sold my jeep I used to see all sorts of vehicles on trails they should have never been on. The concerning scenario would be because of the hot weather a vacationer goes to the high elevations to camp in a crossover or AWD vehicle. They make it up there away from cell signal etc. The storm decides to drop in further west. Monday things are clouding up, but it’s still not cold so they stay another night, Tuesday they wake up to snow thinking it will warm up and melt later in the day. The cold front starts moving in temps drop into the 20s. The next thing they know they are trapped and have no way to get back down the 4wd road. This scenario is a possibility anywhere in Colorado on Tuesday or Wednesday. That is why it is important to get the information out, so people can take extra precautions and have an escape plan if necessary.

I have several model runs to share. Just a reminder, the GFS has four full 14 day out model runs per day. The Euro and Canadian only have two full 10 day model runs per day. This far out I will always have more GFS data than Euro and Canadian, but that does not necessarily make it more correct. By Sunday the two Euro short runs will be within the storm window so we will have that extra data to review.

Here are the maps by model starting with the GFS.

This was the GFS late yesterday afternoon

Thursday evening GFS

Overnight GFS

Friday morning GFS

Canadian model Thursday evening

Canadian Friday morning, notice the shift slightly west?

Here was the Euro Thursday night

Here is the latest Euro keeping most of the activity on the eastern side of the divide.

Does this mean it is going to miss us? The answer is it is still too early to tell. There were a couple runs similar to this earlier in the week, then 24 hours later they showed significant accumulations. As I said yesterday we will continue to watch the trend.

The difference between yesterday’s run and today’s is the positioning of the cut-off low (aka storm leftovers). The Euro had shown the closed area of low pressure meandering around the four corners and drawing in moisture. This latest run shows the closed low pushing deep into New Mexico. This could be an anomalous run or it could be starting a new trend.

Next update Saturday afternoon. Thanks for following and supporting the page!

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2 thoughts on “Update On Next Week’s Storm Potential

  1. Debbie McArthur

    I have a friend hiking the CT headed north. May be inbetween Creede and Salida this next week…what might that look like for snow?

    1. I honestly don’t know the terrain on that stretch of the CT, but if they are going to be on the trail Tuesday and Wednesday at or above 8,000 feet I would have some concerns. But it is still too early to know.

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