The NAM model has moved back west. The GFS just moved further east in the model run at 5 pm.
Here is the latest NAM run that just came out (2:45 pm).
As I said earlier this model is relatively low-resolution by today’s standards. Don’t look at this and expect 7.5″ on snow in Durango.
Here was the abundantly moist liquid-equivalent forecast
Here was the GFS run that came out after my last post, it has changed since then.
And here is the latest Euro, notice the near bullseye on Wolf Creek Pass.
Here are the latest Winter Storm Warnings
Local Winter Storm Warning (WSW)
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF TELLURIDE, OURAY, LAKE CITY, SILVERTON, RICO, AND HESPERUS
417 PM MDT MON SEP 7 2020
…WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 PM MDT WEDNESDAY…
* WHAT…HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES EXPECTED, MAINLY ABOVE 9000 FEET. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 40 MPH.
* WHERE…NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.
* WHEN…FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 PM MDT WEDNESDAY.
* IMPACTS…TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT, ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES. HEAVY EARLY-SEASON SNOW ON TOP OF FULLY LEAVED TREES COULD RESULT IN TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.”
Wolf Creek Pass WSW
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FEET-EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET-
159 PM MDT MON SEP 7 2020
…WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 AM MDT THURSDAY…
* WHAT…HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 20 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
* WHERE…EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.
* WHEN…FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 AM MDT THURSDAY.
* IMPACTS…TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE. THE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS COULD IMPACT THE TUESDAY EVENING COMMUTE AND WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTES.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS…THIS IS AN EARLY SEASON SNOW EVENT, SO SOME MELTING OF THE SNOW ON WARM SURFACES IS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE STORM. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHLY VARIABLE SNOW AMOUNTS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
IF YOU MUST TRAVEL, KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT, FOOD, AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.”
At this point, I am hoping for the best scenario with over an inch of liquid precipitation throughout SW Colorado.
I glanced at the afternoon GFS and it has moved back fully east of our area. We will see. If the GFS is correct it will change my entire way of forecasting this winter. It has been wrong for so long, I can’t imagine. That being said it nailed the hurricane in Louisiana.
Thanks for following and supporting the page. I will have at least 3 updates tomorrow beginning around 5 am.