Monday Morning Model Update-There Is Still A lot Of Uncertainty

The smoky skies should continue as the wind shifts and smoke from all of the fires north of us filter the sun overhead.

As I mentioned this morning, the NWS changed its tune and has gone all in on the moisture for SW Colorado. The Euro and Canadian have been all in for days. The NAM model made a big move west yesterday afternoon.  It was the original short term model used for years by the NWS until higher resolution models were developed to improve accuracy.

I am pretty sure it was the afternoon run of this model that caught their attention.

The model continued to pump out a lot moisture for 2 more model runs. Unfortunately, the latest run shows a slight move back to the east.

Here is the latest NAM

Here is the liquid equivalent

This is no longer considered a high-resolution model. The lower elevation snowfall is over enhanced and I am not expecting totals like shown above at the lower elevations.

The GFS is still being stingy and keeping most of the activity well to our East.

Here is the latest GFS from the overnight hours

I am going to leave the Canadian off because it is still overboard on the precipitation. I am not ignoring it, I still look at every run but the model is too excited right now and needs a little timeout.

Here are the two most recent Euro runs

Sunday evening

Here is the liquid equivalent from the same run. For those of you who are new, liquid equivalent is exactly what it says. If you melt all of the snow and add that total to any rain that falls this would  be how much total precipitation fell.

Here is the latest overnight run from the Euro.This is through Thursday afternoon. The overnight and evening model runs from Euro only extend 90 hours.

Here is the liquid equivalent

Here is the latest German model run

Thanks for following and supporting the page.This afternoon I will cover the day runs of the Euro, Canadian and GFS, as well as the afternoon NAM run and any new forecast highlights. Stay tuned!

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