Winter Storm Warning

Since my post yesterday afternoon, the Euro model and the Canadian Model have dug in their heels on a wetter and snowier solution for SW Colorado. They are now joined by the German Model and the US short term mesoscale model (the NAM). In light of these developments, the NWS has issued a Winter Storm Warning.

Remember when the NWS singles out Hesperus, they are referring to Mayday

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
336 AM MDT Mon Sep 7 2020

COZ018-019-071745-
/O.UPG.KGJT.WS.A.0008.200908T0900Z-200909T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KGJT.WS.W.0009.200908T1800Z-200910T0000Z/
Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains-
Including the cities of Telluride, Ouray, Lake City, Silverton,
Rico, and Hesperus
336 AM MDT Mon Sep 7 2020

…WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 PM MDT WEDNESDAY…

* WHAT…Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 12
inches expected. Locally higher amounts possible. Winds will
gust up to 40 mph.

* WHERE…Northwest San Juan Mountains and Southwest San Juan
Mountains.

* WHEN…From noon Tuesday to 6 PM MDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS…Travel could be very difficult, especially over higher
mountain passes. Heavy early-season snow on top of fully leaved
trees could result in tree damage and power outages from Tuesday
through Wednesday.

A Winter Storm Warning has also been issued for Wolf Creek Pass

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
408 AM MDT Mon Sep 7 2020

COZ067-068-071815-
/O.UPG.KPUB.WS.A.0010.200908T0900Z-200909T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KPUB.WS.W.0006.200908T1800Z-200910T1200Z/
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
408 AM MDT Mon Sep 7 2020

…WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 AM MDT
THURSDAY…

* WHAT…Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 10 to 20
inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE…Eastern San Juan Mountains.

* WHEN…From noon Tuesday to 6 AM MDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS…Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening
commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS…This is an early season snow event, so snow
is expected to melt on contact during the beginning of the
storm, creating highly variable snow amounts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

I will do a preliminary model analysis this morning that should be out around 9 am then another peek at the models later this afternoon.

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