Tuesday Morning Update-Here We Go!

Most models are in decent agreement in bringing a fairly significant rain and snow event to SW Colorado.

The first wave of cooler air filtered in and has brought another dose of smoke from the fires in Northeast Utah. Showers should start in the mountains before noon with snow levels high, initially around 11,000 feet. I expect the snow levels to slowly drop to 9,500 feet by 4 pm and around 8,500 feet by 8 pm. We will see a shot at some snow below 8,500 feet before were done, but I expect mostly rain below 8,000 feet. One thing that is important to mention is that heavier snow showers can lower snow levels. Also, all of the model guidance for overnight low temperatures was too high for this morning’s low, by 2-5 degrees depending on the model. That error right there could be the difference between rain and snow tonight and tomorrow in the lower and mid-elevation areas.

I will take a closer look at temperatures this afternoon but if you have concerns take precautions. The temperature spread in the models for overnight lows ranges from 35 to 40 degrees. As I said the models busted on this mornings low temperatures, they were too high by 2-5 degrees.

Here are the latest model runs for snow and total liquid precipitation.

Euro snow

Euro liquid

Canadian snow

Canadian liquid

GFS snow

GFS liquid

While I love seeing the model consensus, I will feel better after the daytime model run come out.

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One thought on “Tuesday Morning Update-Here We Go!

  1. Frank Masiarz

    Heavy rain with hail at north end of CR 228 at CR 502. Temperatures: before rain @ 65 degrees; during rain…now = noon @ 52 degrees.

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