Sunday Update

After one run of the GFS starting to show some promise for a more southerly storm track, the model has abandoned ship and now and the Euro is trending north as well showing the bulk of the precipitation falling north of Red Mountain Pass. 12 hours ago the Euro brought light rain as far south as Durango with accumulating snow north of Rockwood and as far south as Wolf Creek Pass.

Usually, I expect differences between the GFS and the Euro. I don’t talk as often about the Canadian model, but in the days leading up to the event the Canadian usually casts the winning vote. Right now the very latest Canadian is walking right in line with the GFS. Unless or until the Canadian comes over to team Euro, and by that I mean team “12 hours ago Euro”, it will be difficult for me to believe a nice precipitation event is on the way.

The one thing every model agrees on is that Monday and Tuesday we will see the coldest overnight lows of the season so far.

There are about dozens of model runs left between those three models before the storm affects Colorado so it is too early to worry. As I said yesterday this is a very common storm tract for Fall storms and it would be more unusual for the storm to track far enough south to hit us.

If it becomes clear that a miss is on the way I have some new thoughts on Winter I will share later in the week.

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