This model cycle has brought a change in the Euro and Canadian models. Time will tell if they stick with this scenario or move back to what they have been touting all week.
The cut-off low (pressure system) is now shown by these models taking a more southerly track, pulling moisture into New Mexico. Remember this is only half of the system. The first part of the system is the cold front that comes down from the north. This current scenario impacts our forecast area, but not as much as it would if the low tracks just slightly further north.
The other scenario that would work to our benefit would be if the cold front from the north slows down several hours. The models have not slowed the approach this front down very much since I started tracking it. Usually, this slowdown in the modeling occurs in the last 48-24 hours prior to its arrival. So we still have a shot at a little higher totals than what is being forecasted in this model cycle.
Despite the lower totals in these current model runs, it still looks like Advisories and or Warnings will be issued for Wolf Creek and the 550 passes, and I can’t rule out areas above 8,500 feet. Travel will be an issue if you are leaving the forecast area Sunday evening and most of Monday via Hwy 160 or 550.
I am going to leave the GFS off for now because the other three models are pretty close to each other with forecasted precipitation amounts.
Thanks for following and supporting the page! Next Update Saturday morning.