In no particular order here are the current winter products that have been issued. I have only included areas where I know I have followers. My take on this is at the end.
COZ021-022-252200-
/O.EXB.KGJT.WW.Y.0020.201026T0600Z-201027T0000Z/
FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER-ANIMAS RIVER BASIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF CORTEZ, DOVE CREEK, MANCOS, DURANGO, BAYFIELD, AND IGNACIO
256 AM MDT SUN OCT 25 2020
…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM MDT MONDAY…
* WHAT…SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES IN THE UPPER DOLORES RIVER AND 3 TO 7 INCHES IN THE ANIMAS RIVER BASIN. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE FOOTHILLS.
* WHERE…FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER AND ANIMAS RIVER BASIN.
* WHEN…FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM MDT MONDAY.
* IMPACTS…TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT. THE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS COULD IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE MONDAY.
COZ018-019-252200-
/O.CON.KGJT.WS.W.0010.201025T1800Z-201027T0600Z/
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF TELLURIDE, OURAY, LAKE CITY, SILVERTON, RICO, AND HESPERUS
256 AM MDT SUN OCT 25 2020
…WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT MONDAY NIGHT…
* WHAT…HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 16 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS EXCEEDING TWO FEET LIKELY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 45 MPH.
* WHERE…SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.
* WHEN…FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT MONDAY NIGHT.
COZ023-252200-
/O.EXB.KGJT.WW.Y.0020.201026T0600Z-201027T0000Z/
SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN- INCLUDING THE CITY OF PAGOSA SPRINGS
256 AM MDT SUN OCT 25 2020
…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM MDT MONDAY…
* WHAT…SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES ABOVE 7000 FEET INCLUDING THE CITY OF PAGOSA SPRINGS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE FOOTHILLS. LESSER AMOUNTS EXPECTED BELOW 7000 FEET.
* WHERE…SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN.
* WHEN…FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM MDT MONDAY.
COZ066-068-072>075-251830-
/O.CON.KPUB.WS.W.0008.201026T0000Z-201027T0600Z/
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET- (Wolf Creek Pass)
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FEET- NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET- SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FEET- SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET- 418 AM MDT SUN OCT 25 2020
…WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT MDT MONDAY NIGHT…
* WHAT…HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 9 TO 29 INCHES. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 50 MPH.
* WHERE…EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET AND THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS.
* WHEN…FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT MDT MONDAY NIGHT
URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
256 AM MDT SUN OCT 25 2020
COZ014-017-252200-
/O.UPG.KGJT.WW.Y.0020.201025T1800Z-201027T0600Z/
/O.EXB.KGJT.WS.W.0010.201025T1800Z-201027T0000Z/
UPPER GUNNISON RIVER VALLEY-UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF GUNNISON, CIMARRON, RIDGWAY, AND GLADE PARK
256 AM MDT SUN OCT 25 2020
…WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT MONDAY…
* WHAT…HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND A FOOT. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 40 MPH.
* WHERE…UPPER GUNNISON RIVER VALLEY AND UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE.
* WHEN…FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT MONDAY.
COZ011-252200-
/O.UPG.KGJT.WS.A.0010.201026T0000Z-201026T1800Z/
/O.EXB.KGJT.WS.W.0010.201025T2100Z-201026T1800Z/
CENTRAL GUNNISON AND UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER BASIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF MONTROSE, HOTCHKISS, AND DELTA
256 AM MDT SUN OCT 25 2020
…WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON MDT MONDAY…
* WHAT…RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO HEAVY SNOW MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH 6 TO 8 INCHES NEAR MONTROSE.
* WHERE…CENTRAL GUNNISON AND UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER BASIN.
* WHEN…FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON MDT MONDAY.
At the risk of sounding like I am dumping a bucket of water on these advisories, I am not as optimistic as the NWS for the lower elevations of La Plata and Montezuma counties. The overnight models are largely unchanged from yesterday. The Euro even reduced its precipitation amounts in the lower elevations and is showing an eastern bias with more precipitation west of Hwy 550. More on that after the maps. The GFS is still very low with its precipitation in the lower elevations. Of course, the Canadian is all in for a perfect storm.
Here are the latest model runs.
GFS liquid
GFS snow
Canadian liquid
Canadian snow
Euro liquid
Euro snow
This is a cold powerful storm. Heavy bands of precipitation are expected to show up late tonight. The models cannot determine exactly where those bands will set up. We will know soon enough! I am comfortable with the higher elevation Warnings. Precipitation could start before noon in the higher elevations. Very light showers will break out in numerous locations this afternoon. Things will pick up considerably as we move into the evening.
Next Update later today. Thanks for following!