Pattern Change Next Weekend

Today is my favorite day of the year, the end of daylight savings time! Why is that my favorite? Because weather models run on universal time which means I get model runs an hour earlier. The fact that the time change day is my favorite day of the year tells you all you need to know about my level of nerdiness.

There is a chance of increasing clouds on Tuesday with a very slight chance of mountain precipitation. Other than that, it will be a boring week with temps on the increase Wednesday through Friday.

On Friday a very large deep trough of low pressure will move on to the west coast. On Saturday we will potentially see a few disturbances start to affect our weather.

Right now the model agreement is pretty good. Although I have written about this yet, I have been watching it for several days. I have been a little gun shy after the last attempt at a storm. Actually, the storm was fine last time. Many people got a lot of snow despite the Durango donut miss.

This is a colder and larger storm complex that is going to affect many more people than the last one. I have not talked about the MJO in a while because it has less of an effect on us in the fall. In the heart of winter, the MJO is much more likely to impact our weather.

The MJO is currently moving out of phase 7 and into phase 8. That move into phases 8 and then 1 coincides with next weekend’s arrival of the trough. Phases 8 and 1 are associated with below-average temperatures and above-average precipitation.

I don’t want to dive too deep into precipitation forecasts yet. Stay tuned, I should have plenty to talk about this coming week! Thanks for following.

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