Here we are 5 to 6 days from a storm potentially moving into the area and a clearer picture is beginning to emerge. There are similarities to the last storm, but at the moment, the weather models show this one has a few things going for it the last one did not.
Again this will be a two-pronged storm that will first usher in some cooler air and may bring some light precipitation late Saturday into Sunday. After that, most models show a lull while this storm gets its act together. Sunday night and Monday the models show the cold air in place while the second piece of energy comes in from the southwest.
It is a little early to look at models for anything other than consensus at this point. Last time there was very little consensus among the models of how the storm would evolve. Although there are a few minor differences in timing, there is much better consensus among the models this time.
This storm is larger, stronger, and colder than the last one. It will affect more areas, and if this scenario pans out I expect mostly snow, especially above 7,000 feet.
It is easiest to just follow the liquid precipitation totals at this stage of the game. If things go well I will start posting snow totals in a couple of days.
Here they are. These are the very most recent model runs from late morning today.
I mentioned the differences in timing. The GFS is, as always, the fastest model with the progression from west to east with the storm. This is going to be a headache for forecasters until the models agree on a timing solution.
At this point, it is too early for me to counsel travelers on the best travel times for the weekend and the first part of next week. Just be aware that if you have to drive over a pass you are likely to experience some delay between Saturday and next Monday night.
Next Update Tuesday. Thanks again for following and supporting the site!