The models have remained very consistent on impacts over the last 24 hours. This is a good thing. Rather than splitting hairs, I have decided it is best to consider this storm complex to be two storms. The difference in the models can be attributed to which storm is stronger and when the heaviest precipitation will arrive.
The latest morning models are hinting at two significant precipitation events. First on Saturday, then again very late Sunday into Monday. As of the latest runs, the Canadian and GFS are showing more precipitation on Saturday. The Euro is balancing the precipitation between Saturday and Monday. Keep in mind, if the second piece (storm) misses us it could significantly affect our outcome.
Let’s start the GFS. Once again I want to focus on liquid precipitation, we will work snow into the equation in a couple of days.
GFS-this latest run depicts a couple of near-perfect storms. In the last storm the GFS was trending towards zero inches in the lower elevations, which was close to what actually happened.
Canadian-This model tends to get over-excited when it comes to cold air. Today’s latest run showed exactly that.
Finally the Euro. The Euro is not showing as big of a discrepancy from run to run as the other models are showing. This winter will be a big test for the Euro. At one time it was the most reliable model available. For the last 6 months or so, I have not been able to say that.
If any of these solutions came to fruition I would be delighted. My optimism is growing but I am still a little gun shy.
Next Update Wednesday. Thanks for following!