A Stormy Weekend Looks More And More Likely

With every passing hour, the likelihood is increasing that a major pattern change will be ushered in starting on Saturday. Although there are still some minor timing differences, the weather models are forecasting two waves of fairly significant precipitation between Saturday and Tuesday morning.

The storm is very large and will come across in two parts. As I explained yesterday, since there is going to be a lull of sorts on Sunday it will be easier for purposes of discussion to consider this to be two storms.

For the last 24 hours, the models have been bumping up total precipitation amounts in the Saturday-Tuesday time period.

On Saturday a disturbance will approach the area. It will produce rain below approximately 9,500 feet. Higher up wet snow will fall. The cold front will arrive sometime later Saturday and by Sunday morning snow levels should drop to at least 6,500 feet. Snow should start to taper off only to return late Sunday as another disturbance moves into the area.

Models are consistently showing 18-30 inches of new snow at Wolf Creek. Other mountain areas at or above 9,000 feet could see a foot or more of snow by late Monday night or Tuesday morning.

As I mentioned earlier the models really boosted precipitation totals over the last 24 hours.

Canadian–No I don’t believe it but it is fun to look at!

Euro

GFS

If half of these amounts actually happened it would be a huge boost.

I don’t want to get too far ahead of myself, but the MJO is signaling that it is headed into phase 8 and then phase 1. This is significant because it would indicate a favorable environment for below normal temperatures and above-average precipitation to continue after the system departs the area.

Don’t worry too much about how to read these graphs but here is the MJO forecast from the GFS and the Euro.

GFS: Follow the squiggly green line as it goes into phase 8 then phase 1.

Euro: Follow the red line as it goes into phase 8, then the blue line as it camps out in phase 1 until November 17th.

Of course, these are just models but it is encouraging when the MJO agrees with the other parameters from the various models.

This could a fun time coming up. I am not going to comment on any potential watches, warnings or advisories before Friday. Next update Thursday.

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