Friday Afternoon Update–Travel And Model Update

Not a lot has changed since the overnight model Update. I am starting to sense some timing issues on the second storm coming in on Sunday night.  This may result in a longer lull which would be a good thing. It may give a good 8-10 hours to clean things up and give most folks a travel window.

If you need to travel on Saturday the lower elevations will be wet but should be fine until Saturday evening. If you are traveling over the passes on Saturday conditions will go downhill throughout the day. Snow will be possible above 10,000 feet all day long.

On Sunday you will have a decent window (as of this moment)  to cross the passes between noon to around 6 to 8 pm Sunday before the next batch arrives. If you are driving west or southwest of Durango that window is more likely 10 am to 6 pm on Sunday.

Here is a high-resolution model’s animation showing the progression of precipitation beginning 8 pm tonight and ending Sunday at 2 pm. That puts us into the lull until things pick back up late Sunday night.

Here is what that model produces for precipitation. Again, this only through noon or so on Sunday.

Here is the GFS (1st wave only).

Here is the German model (1st wave only).

Here is the Euro model (1st wave only).

Here is the latest Euro showing the 4 day total (1st and 2nd waves)

I wanted to include that last map just to drive home the fact that there are two distinct precipitation events on the way.

I will do another brief Update late this afternoon after the NWS adjusts the forecasts and highlights. Hopefully, they will have that all done before 5 pm.

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