Overnight the models were very consistent. There was no wavering on amounts. The GFS and Canadian are both showing more precipitation for the higher elevations than the Euro. The Euro and Canadian are more generous with the precipitation for the mid and lower elevations.
If you are new to the site model consistency is the main thing we use to judge the validity of the weather models’ output. The consistency I have seen this week has been something I have not seen since January and February of 2019.
It still doesn’t mean everything is a lock but it is very encouraging.
Timing has not changed. Things will get started gradually on Saturday and go downhill very quickly by Saturday evening. I will be doing a travel update this afternoon.
If you haven’t seen it yet there is a Winter Storm Watch that was already issued for the higher elevations for 12-24 inches of snow and wind gusts up to 55 mph. There is also a Winter Storm Watch for Wolf Creek pass for 2-3 feet of snow. I will explore those in more detail this afternoon when the final versions are issued.
So here are the overnight model runs.
Canadian
GFS
Euro
Just for fun here is the Euro’s snow output for the same time period. Weather models default to a 10-1 liquid to snow ratio (10 inches of snow for every 1 inch of precipitation). This will be too low for elevations above 9,000 feet so the actual snow amounts could be higher than what is being shown for the passes.
Euro snow
I will probably be doing two more Updates today. One around noon then another late afternoon. Thanks for following!