So far, precipitation amounts have outpaced the models. Also of note is that the models’ and the NWS’s high temperature forecasts were wrong by 8-15 degrees. It will be interesting to see if this will result in lower snow levels tonight.
As I mentioned this morning some drier air has worked into some of the forecast area. This won’t last long and it is normal to have a bit of a dry slot prior to the arrival of the strong jet.
I have not seen anything in any of the later model runs to concern me.
I have been focusing on the first event for the last two days. When you read the upcoming Winter Storm Warnings, keep in mind that they are referring to phase one and two of this complex storm. By treating these as two separate events I will be able to concentrate on the snowfall forecast for Sunday night and Monday tomorrow.
Here are the updated warnings for the 3-day event.
Wolf Creek
URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
300 PM MST SAT NOV 7 2020
COZ066-068-080600-
/O.CON.KPUB.WS.W.0009.000000T0000Z-201110T0600Z/
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET-
300 PM MST SAT NOV 7 2020
…WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MST
MONDAY…
* WHAT…HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 FEET, WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ON SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS RATES OF 3 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR COULD OCCUR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 80 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST WIND WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN THE STORM SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND WIND HITS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
* WHERE… EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE
10000 FEET.
* WHEN…UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY.
* IMPACTS…TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY. THE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS COULD IMPACT THE MORNING OR EVENING COMMUTE. VERY STRONG WINDS COULD CAUSE EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS…TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT TO
IMPOSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. BLOWING SNOW WILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY. TRAVEL COULD BE ESPECIALLY DIFFICULT ON HIGHWAY 160 OVER WOLF CREEK PASS, AND COLORADO STATE HIGHWAY 149.
URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
156 PM MST SAT NOV 7 2020
COZ018-019-080700-
/O.CON.KGJT.WS.W.0011.000000T0000Z-201110T0600Z/
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF TELLURIDE, OURAY, LAKE CITY, SILVERTON, RICO, AND HESPERUS
156 PM MST SAT NOV 7 2020
…WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MST
MONDAY…
* WHAT…HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 FEET WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ON SOUTHWEST-FACING SLOPES. ELEVATIONS BELOW 9000 FEET WILL SEE ACCUMULATIONS CLOSER TO 7 TO 14 INCHES. WINDS GUSTING OVER 60 MPH ABOVE TIMBERLINE AT TIMES. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND WIND HITS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
* WHERE…SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.
* WHEN…UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY.
* IMPACTS…TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE.
I like everything I am reading but I do have some concerns that all areas will hit those totals. It would be pretty crazy if Telluride and Purgatory hit the higher totals. However, it is not impossible with the jet max overhead. Speaking of the jet, 50-80 mph winds will make it down to pass level. Some high-resolution models are suggesting 100 mph winds just above the passes. Lower and mid-elevations could see gusts from 30-60 mph as the cold front approaches and passes.
Here is the estimated location of the cold front.
As you can see the front is “leaning back” slightly. This is a sign that it could possibly be slowing and strengthening. We’ll see.
If you wake up to snow click the contact button and let me know your location and how much you received. Next Update Sunday morning. Thanks for following and supporting the site!