Pre-Thanksgiving and Post-Thanksgiving Storms

As advertised, the weak system came through last night and early this morning and was a very low impact event. Wolf Creek was able to squeeze out 3 inches of snow while most areas had a few hundredths of an inch of liquid.

We now set our sites on what should be a more potent storm coming in late Sunday through Tuesday.

Here is where the energy for the storm is at the moment, circled in red.

That energy is going to slip down the coast and make the trek into our region, with the first waves reaching us around midnight Monday morning.

The models have been trending up with the precipitation.

Snow levels during the day on Monday for the most part will remain at or above 8,500 feet but may lower during heavier periods of precipitation.  Snow levels could start to drop to the rest of the mid-elevation areas by 8 pm or so Monday night. They should drop to the lowest elevations between 2 am and 5 am Tuesday morning.

Here are the latest model runs for snow and liquid precipitation.

GFS liquid

GFS snow

German liquid

Canadian liquid

Canadian snow

Euro liquid

Euro snow

The Euro, Canadian and German models offer similar solutions. The GFS is favoring a slightly further north approach with the storm. This is a normal bias for this model, it never gives the storm time to deepen and dig in.

In the title, I mentioned a “Post-Thanksgiving” storm. The models are trying to bring another storm in Friday through late Saturday night.

The difference is in the details. The GFS is showing split flow with a piece of the storm breaking away to our north with a small piece digging into the southwest and producing a low impact event over our area. The Euro is showing most of the energy going into the southwest, resulting in a moderate to high impact storm for Friday and Saturday.

Hopefully, we will end November similarly to how we started it, with major precipitation.

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