Northwest Flow Won That Round

As the front approached our area it flattened out resulting in northwest and northerly flow. The Euro model did a horrible job trying to sort things out. As inconsistent as the GFS model was, yesterday’s morning run that I largely ignored was the most accurate. I had noticed in previous GFS runs that it was showing a longer period of northwest flow than the Euro, but it still largely missed on precipitation totals at Purgatory and Wolf Creek.

You can see how “flat” the front was as it went through our area around 2 am.

Wolf Creek’s 12-inch storm total ended up 6-12 inches short of what I was seeing in the models. Telluride did well with 10 inches so far. Purgatory’s 3 inch 2 day total was very disappointing. The upshot is that we will have a few decent days for snowmaking.

The models have been hinting at another system trying to come through Thursday night into Friday. The Euro is favoring a stronger system, the GFS shows almost nothing. Rather than jump back on the Euro I am going to give the models another 48 hours to sort things out. There is a potential for that system on Friday to develop to our south across New Mexico which may impact some travel. Hopefully, on Thursday I will be able to have better guidance on that.

My next post will be on Thursday. Thanks as always for following–we just surpassed 11,000 Facebook followers! If you are new the best way to contact me is with the blue link at the bottom of the page.

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