A small disturbance in the form of a weak closed circulation area of low pressure will form over North Central Arizona late tonight. That is usually a good thing, but this system is moisture-starved and it is not very strong.
The system will work its way across Arizona overnight and approach New Mexico early tomorrow morning. The models are split with the Euro being the furthest south which results in mostly a miss for the area. The other models track the system a little closer to the Colorado border and bring mostly light but varying amounts of snow into the forecast area. Snow levels should start around 6,000 feet and slowly rise to 6,500 feet by late Friday morning.
The closer the system tracks to the Colorado border the greater chances of some light accumulating snow.
Historically these types of weak systems bring a little snow to areas to our south like Breen, Long Hollow, Shenandoah, Trappers Crossing, and Ignacio. They also create a bit of upslope flow into Wolf Creek and Pagosa.
As I said, this will not be a big system but it may create some nuisance travel impacts for all of Northern New Mexico and potentially southern La Plata and Archuleta Counties.
Here is the Euro. The Euro is the outlier right now we will see if adjust overnight.
Here is the GFS. The GFS is slightly further north than the Euro.
I like what the next 3 models are doing here because I have seen similar results in the past with this type of weak system.
The German ICON model
The Canadian model
Here is the High-Resolution North American Model (NAM 3km). It has the furthest north track with the system.
If all goes well most areas could get a dusting to a couple to a few inches of snow.
I hope everyone has a Happy Thanksgiving day! I am thankful to be able to share my love of weather with everyone and grateful to live where we do. Thank you for following.