The Next System Is On The Way

Thanks to all of you who reported snowfall. Most lower and middle elevation areas reported 1-2 inches. Purgatory didn’t report but I got a report from Rico of 4 inches a couple of hours ago. Wolf Creek was at 5 inches at 7 am and it is still snowing at 11:00 am. Telluride is still seeing snow after reporting 5 inches this morning.

A new advisory has been issued, as we expected. When you have an active advisory and a future advisory issued it is confusing so I cleaned up the wording to concentrate on the future advisory for tomorrow. They are ending the current advisory at 9 pm (they may end it earlier we will see).

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
320 AM MST FRI DEC 11 2020

COZ018-019-112115-
/O.NEW.KGJT.WW.Y.0026.201212T1500Z-201213T1200Z/
/O.EXT.KGJT.WW.Y.0025.000000T0000Z-201212T0400Z/
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF TELLURIDE, OURAY, LAKE CITY, SILVERTON, RICO, AND HESPERUS
320 AM MST FRI DEC 11 2020

…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 5 AM MST SUNDAY…

* WHAT… SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6
TO 9 INCHES GENERALLY ABOVE 9000 FEET WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 50 MPH.

* WHERE…NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.

* WHEN…, FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 5 AM MST SUNDAY.

* IMPACTS…TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT.

If you are disappointed with what has happened so far you may not have concentrated on the models runs I showed yestrday for the first part of the storm. They did a better job with amounts than they have in a while. I wasn’t expecting too much for the lower elevations and 2 days ago I said Purgatory would probably end up in the 3-6 inch range for the three day total. Now I think they are going to beat that.

This next system will have colder air and more moisture in the atmosphere to work with. At the moment the next piece of energy looks like it will track in a manner that will give everyone a little more snow by Sunday morning. This next system should bring southwest, west, northwest and northerly flow.

This morning small leftover pieces of energy drifted through the area, briefly enhancing snowfall rates between 8-10 am. Most of the activity has stopped. If it hasn’t stopped in your area it will by this afternoon. Wolf Creek, Telluride, Red Mountain and Silverton may continue until around sunset.

We should see 1-3 inches in the lower elevations with the next system. Mid-elevations could vary slightly because some areas do better than others with westerly flow. Generally areas of eastern Montezuma and Dolores Counties do well with this set up. So do western areas of La Plata County including Dwest, Durango Ridge Ranch, Rafter Jay, Long Hollow and higher areas along CR 125. It looks like 2-4 inches in those locations. When things set up just right with westerly flow, areas along the CR 240 corridor can get snow so 2-4 inches there would not surprise me. Mayday and Purgatory should get 3-6 inches.  Telluride should do the best, especially later Saturday afternoon and evening with another 7-10 inches. Wolf Creek will do best early to midday with another 6-12 inches. Wolf Creek is a bit more of a wildcard because it will depend on how quickly the system progresses through the area and what if anything is leftover that could affect the area.

Here are the latest model runs showing the additional precipitation that will fall between Friday 11 am and Sunday morning.

Canadian

GFS

Euro

Next Update Sunday. Thanks for the snow reports, they help me analyze which models are giving us the best information. As always thanks for following and supporting the site!

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3 thoughts on “The Next System Is On The Way

  1. Carol GODLIN

    Light snow most of the day yesterday here in May day and probably about 2 in total through the night and morning.. quite a bit of wind this morning blowing the snow all over the place. Still having a few occasional light snow showers today.

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