A Southerly Shift For The Small Storm

In the last 24 hours, several of the weather models have shifted the track of the incoming low-pressure system. With a more southerly track the chances for accumulating snow increases. Snow is falling already at most mountain locations. This will continue and some snow will move into the lower and mid-locations before long.

While the overnight runs of the models show this storm track change, the latest high-resolution has been shifting back and forth from run to run.  Either way, it is a  fast-moving storm so major accumulations seem unlikely.

Before I post the precipitation maps, one area that caught my eye for slightly heavier precipitation is between Montrose and Ridgway. Overall, the highest totals will fall in the higher elevations of southern Ouray County. After the maps, I will break down the other snow totals.

I’ll start with the latest high-resolution run from NAM 3km model.

Euro

German

Canadian

GFS

The snow is currently building into the higher elevations and will slowly spread to the mid-elevations then the lower elevations.

For 6,500 feet and slightly above 0 to 3 inches could accumulate,  1 to 4 inches for mid-elevations and Pagosa. Purgatory is a tough call but 2 inches is likely with as much as 5 inches if everything goes well.  I mentioned Montrose to Ouray earlier and I feel like some area is going to get 3 to 6 inches with significantly higher amounts in the highest elevations of southern Ouray County.  3 to 6 inches for Telluride and Wolf Creek.

This was a nice surprise and it shows you we can never be 100 percent sure what is going to happen with storms in southwest Colorado.

Next Update around 1 pm. I will comment on the storm’s progress and discuss the rest of the week.  Thanks for following!

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