Published at noon Thursday

If you wonder where the snow is at, here it is.

This was in Binghamton, NY where they were experiencing 3 to 6 inch per hour snowfall early this morning.

Back to our reality…

The well-advertised storm will make its impacts felt across the forecast area late this evening through Friday morning. The models have had another uptick in precipitation totals. I still do not expect much, if anything, in the lower elevations. My forecast totals will be at the end of this post.

Here are the latest model runs

German

Canadian

GFS

Euro

There has been some consistency in the models. There has also been some variability, which is likely due to how each model is predicting how long the flow will be out of the southwest, west, northwest, and north.

I am trying to balance that out and come up with a weighted average among the models. Here is where I am at based on what I have seen and what I am currently looking at with the most current models. For the most part, the snow should really get going between sunset and midnight.

Telluride, Ridgway, and Wolf Creek  5 to 8 inches. Ouray 3 to 6 inches, Purgatory 2 to 5 inches. Montrose, Pagosa, and mid-elevations 1-3 inches. Lower elevation locations 0 to 2 inches.

It is encouraging to see a couple of these models increase totals right before the storm’s arrival. This could because the models are seeing more moisture with this storm than they were seeing a couple of days ago. There is an outside chance that the storm could end up in a favorable track with more southwest flow. Right now I have not factored that into my forecast.

Next Update Friday, thanks for following!

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