I Have Some Bad News And Some Good News

Published at 12:30 pm on Monday

First the bad news. The system coming on Tuesday night looks like it will miss most of the forecast area. Telluride and other areas in our northern forecast area could get a couple of inches but at the moment, most areas will just get another dusting.

That would be much worse news if I didn’t see what I am currently seeing on the models for next week. It looks like the potential is there for a significant pattern change with a large storm or several storms throughout the week! All of the models are already on board with this pattern change. They differ a bit on timing but it is likely that the action will start on Monday the 28th and continue throughout the week.

As I have mentioned in previous posts, it is just a matter of time before the storms will follow a more southerly storm track. Southern track storms tend to carry more moisture with them to our area than these northern track storms. I also have mentioned that our big winter of 2018-2019 did not get going until New Year’s Eve. I am not implying we will have a repeat of that winter, but there were a lot of people I had to talk off the ledge in December 2018.

7 days is a long time in the world of weather models. Right now, the GFS and Canadian are the most bullish with precipitation. The GFS has maintained a northerly track for tomorrow night’s storm for several days. The Euro only caved to the more northerly track yesterday. This will be another great test in the ongoing Euro versus the GFS battle.

I don’t want to start the model precipitation output rollercoaster yet, but if the models continue this trend I should be able to post some preliminary highlights in the next couple of days.

Next Update Tuesday morning. I will zero in on some of the totals for the areas that will see accumulating tomorrow night and Wednesday.

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