Update On Next Week’s Storm

Published Wednesday 12/23/20 at Noon

Last night’s storm blew through so fast that the snow didn’t have time to accumulate to even the low range that was expected. In its wake, light flurries are still falling in the mountains in the northern portion of the forecast area.

Moving on, the models are still trying to work out the details of the arrival of the next storm. They are now indicating that we get some prefrontal precipitation as early as Sunday night with the main energy coming in later on Monday. That is believable because the models are showing us in a brief period on zonal flow (west to east).

The European model for the last three runs has been stingy with its precipitation output. With five days before the storm comes onshore, I don’t know that I can blindly trust the Euro as an outlier.

The GFS and the Canadian model are still bullish with their precipitation forecasts. That being said these totals in the morning runs are substantially less than previous runs.

GFS this morning

GFS six hours earlier

Canadian this morning

Previous Canadian run

There are a lot of details to work out but I am cautiously optimistic that we will see some precipitation early next week. Looking further out it does look like the stormy pattern could last through the first week of January at least.

Next Update Thursday, thanks for following!

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