Posted at 1 pm Sunday
Clouds and moisture are moving into the area. Snow has been falling in Northern Arizona and Southern Utah. That precipitation could move into our area as early as this afternoon, but definitely by late tonight.
This pre-frontal precipitation will serve a great purpose by moistening up the atmosphere before the strong system comes onshore very late tonight and starts slowly moving our way tomorrow.
Here is where the storm was as of 8 am this morning. You can see the large area of low pressure off of the Northern California Coast.
The models are doing exactly what I hoped they would, they are trending up as the storm approaches.
The high-resolution models are really cranking up the amounts in areas above 8,500 feet. Overall there is a pretty decent agreement right now for the higher elevations.
Here is this morning’s high-resolution WPC model, it has not changed since I posted the earlier run this morning.
Here is the other high-resolution model I use the NAM 3km.
Here is the latest GFS.
Here is the latest Euro.
My forecasted amounts have a wide range at the moment but I will tighten them up tomorrow. These totals are tonight thru Wednesday morning.
Wolf Creek: 20 to 30 inches
Purgatory, Telluride, Mayday, Silverton(in town), North Vallecito, Pagosa Springs, Durango Hills at or above 8,000 feet and areas from Glacier Club to Purgatory: 8 to 12 inches.
All mid-elevation areas above 7,300 feet in La Plata County: 5 to 9 inches.
Ridgway to Ouray: 3 to 8 inches.
The greater Durango area between 6,500 feet and 7,200 feet, Mancos and Northern Ignacio areas: 2 to 5 inches.
Cortez and Aztec: 0 to 2 inches.
As I said I will tighten up the forecasts in the morning. I would say that with the exception of Wolf Creek, most of these forecasts are still on the conservative side and the potential exists for some upside surprises.
The heaviest snow will fall later on Monday for the southern part of the forecast area. Overnight Monday and Tuesday the heaviest snow should fall for the northern portion of the forecast area.
If I see anything worth mentioning in the afternoon forecast package from the NWS I will briefly post later today.
Thanks for following!