Morning Model Update

Published at 8:15 am Monday

The majority of the reports I have gotten from people have been around 3 inches. The North Valley was closer to 4 to 6 inches overnight. Purgatory reported 6 inches, Wolf Creek reported 6 inches.

The main concern today will be temperatures between 6,500 and 7,000 feet. This will of course limit snow accumulations in lower elevations and some mid-elevation locations.

I am not confident enough with what I am seeing in the models to change any of my storm totals from yesterday. As I mentioned they were conservative. I might be too low for Purgatory, but I am pretty confident Wolf Creek will add another 18 to 24 inches by Wednesday morning.

Here is the morning run from the WPC 2.5km model.

Here is the NAM 3km model.

Between 3 pm and 6 pm, the strongest part of the upper jet will move over our area from west to east. This jet streak will slowly move through for 12 to 18 hours, departing the easternmost portion of our forecast area (Wolf Creek) between 9 am and noon Tuesday.

Here is the jet forecast between now and Tuesday at noon. The warmer colors of yellow, orange and red depict the strongest portion of the jet.

When this happens there are usually bands of heavy snow that develop over the area. Where exactly that happens is nearly impossible to determine, and the models do a poor job predicting these bands. Bottom line, more potential upside surprises by tomorrow morning.

Thanks for all of the reports, I read every one of them but I don’t have time to reply to all of them. Remember to let me know where you are reporting the snow from. Also, after you report it is a good idea to write it down, then clear the area so your next report will be more accurate. After about 4 inches of accumulation, snow starts to compact which will affect your totals.

Next Update this afternoon. Thanks for following!

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