Published at 7:45 am Tuesday
Overall, it is difficult to complain about this storm. I have not gotten a lot of reports yet this morning but most of the ones I have gotten have been positive. Most of the mid-elevation areas ended up with a storm total of 8 to 15 inches! Lower elevations below 7,200 feet, especially northwest of Durango, did very well. Telluride ended up with a total of 9 inches, they may get a little more today. Wolf Creek has a storm total so far of 25 inches and they are reporting heavy snow. Will they hit my 30 inches? Purgatory managed to bust out a storm total of 19 inches! I still have not heard from Vallecito or Pagosa.
For those of you wondering why the Purgatory snow stake is not representative of their reported totals, join the club. I have asked them this in the past and they tell me that the snow stake is not the location where they do their official measurement. Most of us know this to be the case from being there and looking at the snow stake online, then looking around at what is actually accumulating.
Things are going to be quiet for the next few days. There will be a couple of systems that will pass far to our south and north, some of the energy may generate a few flurries across the mountains but nothing significant in the short term.
The morning surface map just came out (a little earlier than normal). It shows a shortwave trough to our north (circled in black).
The models are forecasting a couple to a few more inches in the mountains of high ratio snow, mostly around Telluride and Wolf Creek, with lighter amounts elsewhere.
Here is the morning WPC 2.5km model run
And here is the NAM 3km run
Long term models are starting to come together on a flip back to a stormier pattern beginning January 5th or 6th (next Tuesday or Wednesday) and lasting until January 10th or 11th. During that time models show several storms tracking across our area with some significant snow. Here is what that looks like on the GFS model. This is beginning Monday night the 4th and ending January 12th.
This is a very optimistic scenario, maybe too perfect. The blue blobs are areas of anomalously low, low pressure. In some cases, you will see gray and even green cores in these low-pressure systems, indicating very strong storm cores.
We all know a lot can change between now and then, so it is too early to buy a new snowblower. On the other hand, last week the model runs ended up pretty accurate with this storm.
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Thanks for all of the snow reports, thanks for following, and thanks for supporting the page.