More Good News Than Bad News

Published Saturday 1/16/21 at 12:45 pm

Any snow still falling in the higher elevations in the northern portion of our forecast area will come to an end today with very little if any accumulations. The first storm is slowing down in the models. This is good if you want to see better accumulations. It now looks like the models are expecting the snow to pick up very early Tuesday morning. A further slowdown would not surprise me.

The precipitation totals for the first storm are up with all of the models EXCEPT the Euro. The Euro last night started reducing precipitation totals, primarily in the lower elevations. The trend continued with the latest run today. That has decreased my confidence slightly. Tomorrow, the short-term Euro runs will cover the entire first storm so it will be very interesting to see how everything evolves. Usually the Canadian takes a cue from the Euro, but so far that has not happened. All of the other models look more similar to the GFS, amazingly similar. This may mean the Euro is an outlier and will come back to the higher amounts, or it could be the trendsetter. So it may be another 24-48 hours before we get a full model consensus.

GFS liquid

GFS snow

German liquid

German snow

Canadian liquid

Canadian snow

Here is what is now the outlier model, the European.

Euro liquid

Euro snow


For what it is worth all of the models are still showing another storm coming in on Friday and throughout next weekend. For now, I am going to take a “wait to worry” approach with the Euro.

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