Published 1/17/21 Sunday 12:45 pm
Yesterday, I mentioned that the Euro run was an outlier to the other models. Since then the Euro has come roaring back to life. The GFS and Canadian looked convincing all day and night until this morning’s latest runs, where they have backed off of their totals by taking the storm further south. It is interesting that the Euro did the same thing 24 hours ago. I have a lot of model data to share today so I am just going to stick with the liquid totals. Multiply the numbers for your location by 12 to convert the liquid to snow accumulation. Every model is calling for snow beginning between midnight and 3 am Tuesday morning. Some of the models are more aggressive, I am already anxious to see tomorrow’s model runs. I do expect (at least) Winter Weather Advisories to be issued within the next day.
I was delighted to see the changes in the Euro so here are the last two runs.
Overnight Euro run
This morning’s Euro run
This may look a little different because it is from a different weather model provider. This provider separates the airport total from Durango downtown. If the Euro is correct the southern portion of the forecast area will get some better snow than they have so far.
Next up, a model I don’t usually show but it is an American short-term model. I look at it when I see the GFS suddenly diverges from one run to the next.
This morning’s NAM12km (low-resolution) model.
Here are the last two runs from the Canadian model.
Canadian last night
Canadian this morning
As I said the Canadian took a more southern track this morning.
Here are the last two runs from the GFS.
GFS this morning
Just like with the Canadian model, the GFS takes the southern track with this morning’s run.
The last model is the high-resolution WPC model. WPC stands for NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center. This is one of NOAA’s in house blended models.
I am not too concerned with the latest pull back from the GFS and Canadian. As I said earlier, all models are predicting snow accumulation. At the moment it appears areas from Purgatory to the south will be favored for this storm. This storm has some potential for my followers in Aztec and Bloomington.
My next Update will be Monday, thanks for following and supporting the page!