Published 1/19/21 at 10 am
The Winter Weather Advisory in place for the lower elevations is not going to cut it. I expect it will be upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning for 6-12 inches. It should be, based upon recent model runs.
The Winter Weather Advisory for the mountains for 5-10 inches is probably fine, although do not be surprised if many areas do not meet that criterion.
There are going to be a few big surprise totals in elevations between 7,000-8,000 feet.
Travel on 160 is going to be an issue from Mancos Hill to Wolf Creek tomorrow. It still looks like the snow is going to start from east to west around or after midnight. Travel conditions could be very poor early tomorrow morning.
Here are the latest model runs.
NAM (high resolution 3km)
WPC (NOAA high-resolution)
And here is the overnight Euro. The morning Euro won’t be available until around 11:30 am.
Notice the similarities among these model runs. The Euro is just slightly further north with the storm track than the other models. In my afternoon Update I will post this morning’s Euro as well as my take on total accumulations. If you are bummed about the potential for a southern track resulting in less snow for the resorts, don’t be. Two more traditional storms are on the way, the second storm arrives for the weekend, with another shot of another storm next week. I will talk more about those on Wednesday and Thursday.
Next Update this afternoon, as I said I expect the Advisory to get upgraded to a warning, if not today then in the overnight hours.