Published 1/18/21 Monday at 3 pm
As I said this morning, the Winter Weather Advisory was not going to cut it for the mid and lower elevations. It looks like a widespread 6 to 12++ inch event is on the way! Here are the upgraded Winter Storm Warnings.
COZ022-023-190600-
/O.UPG.KGJT.WW.Y.0003.210119T0400Z-210120T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KGJT.WS.W.0001.210119T0400Z-210120T0000Z/
ANIMAS RIVER BASIN-SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF DURANGO, BAYFIELD, IGNACIO,
AND PAGOSA SPRINGS
140 PM MST MON JAN 18 2021
…WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM
MST TUESDAY…
* WHAT…HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WEST OF DURANGO.
* WHERE…ANIMAS RIVER BASIN AND SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN.
* WHEN…FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW RATES OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.
* IMPACTS…TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE. THE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS COULD IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE.
Interestingly enough, they also increased the totals for the higher elevations. I don’t think that was necessary but I hope I am wrong. These southern track events often lack enough forcing to drive the flow into the higher elevations north of Glacier Club.
COZ019-190600-
/O.UPG.KGJT.WW.Y.0003.210119T0000Z-210120T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KGJT.WS.W.0001.210119T0000Z-210120T0000Z/
SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF SILVERTON, RICO, AND HESPERUS
140 PM MST MON JAN 18 2021
…WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
5 PM MST TUESDAY…
* WHAT…HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 14 INCHES.
* WHERE…SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.
* WHEN…FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW RATES OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.
* IMPACTS…TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT.
Mid elevations will do very well. The NWS is highlighting areas west of Durango for some big totals. That is where the high-resolution models are focusing on. I have learned with these type of events that sometimes the models are wrong with where they think the heaviest snow bands will set up. It could be that the heavier bands set up east of Durango, we won’t know until it happens.
Here are the latest high resolution runs enlarged for your viewing pleasure.
NAM 3km
WPC 2.5km
For the mid-elevations above 7,300 feet between 10 and 16 inches should fall. There could be some pockets of higher snow accumulations in Durango Ridge Ranch and Mayday. As I said, there are going to be some surprises.
For Purgatory I am leaning towards lower totals, but all it would take for the totals to be significantly higher would be a slight jog north with the storm track, or even some leftovers, we will see. For now, I expect 8 to 12 inches. Wolf Creek could see 10 to 15 inches. Silverton 3 to 7 inches and Telluride 2 to 4 inches.
For Durango and Pagosa in town, depending on your location, I expect 7 to 10 inches. Bayfield (at HWY 160) 4 to 8 inches. However, there should be some higher totals in Archuleta County from the western county line to highway 151. Ignacio may do a little better than Bayfield. Mancos, depending on your elevation, should see 3 to 6 inches with 1 to 3 for Cortez. Aztec and Bloomfield will get in on the action with 2 to 5 inches with less in Farmington. This is going to a quick heavy snow event with things winding down considerably by tomorrow early evening.
Next Update early Tuesday morning. Thanks for following and supporting the site!