Wednesday Model Update

Published Wednesday 1/20/21 at 12:15 pm

The models are continuing to paint a picture of an extended period of unsettled weather beginning late Friday.

The lines are still blurred with respect to the start and duration of each event. There is still a period of time on Saturday that some areas could have a rain/snow mix. As I mentioned yesterday the lulls in the precipitation will be longer in the lower elevations. In the high mountain snowpack, there may be areas that have no lulls which will make it more difficult to realize when one event stops and another event starts.

I am going to share the multi-day model projected precipitation totals.

Canadian model

Interestingly enough the Canadian shows another system coming on Thursday. The Euro is starting to show this also but with a lot less punch.


Before I show the GFS models latest projected totals  I want to remind everyone of the GFS model run a few days out from the last storm. It was not even close to the lower elevation totals.


Here were the projected totals from January 15th for our last storm.

At that time the model was projecting less than half of what ended up falling. I can’t say that will happen again. However, let’s go back to December 27th. This was the GFS model’s prediction for precipitation totals the day before our storm on the 28th and 29th that brought many 9-15 inches of snow.


The point is the GFS has not been very trustworthy in projecting low and mid-elevation snowfall.

With all of that being said, here is the latest GFS run showing the Friday through Wednesday projected total.

NOAA’s WPC model

I will leave you with the European model.


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