Model fail, again… The models have struggled with overnight snow amounts almost every night of this storm cycle. I have not heard from many people yet but I woke up to a surprise of 6.5 inches of new snow in Durango West II. When I woke up at 5:00 am there was heavy snow falling but I just looked out and it had nearly stopped. There was not a single model that even came close to putting out that much precipitation.
The snow to liquid ratio was likely above 15 to 1 as the temperature is 20 degrees. This is the type of snow we should get tonight and tomorrow morning so I think the advisory amounts are going to be too low. I will put out a full forecast this afternoon. Here are the new Winter Weather Advisories in their current state. We will see if they adjust them up or not before the next system settles in.
URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
335 AM MST MON JAN 25 2021
COZ021>023-251845-
/O.NEW.KGJT.WW.Y.0006.210126T0000Z-210127T0000Z/
/O.CON.KGJT.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-210125T1500Z/
FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER-ANIMAS RIVER BASIN-
SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF CORTEZ, DOVE CREEK, MANCOS, DURANGO,
BAYFIELD, IGNACIO, AND PAGOSA SPRINGS
335 AM MST MON JAN 25 2021
…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY…
* WHAT…TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS HEADING INTO HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
* WHERE…FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER, ANIMAS RIVER BASIN
AND SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN.
* WHEN… FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY.
* IMPACTS…PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS. THE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS COULD IMPACT THE MORNING OR EVENING COMMUTE.
COZ019-251845-
/O.NEW.KGJT.WW.Y.0006.210126T0000Z-210127T0000Z/
/O.CON.KGJT.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-210125T1500Z/
SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF SILVERTON, RICO, AND HESPERUS
335 AM MST MON JAN 25 2021
…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY…
* WHAT… TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES.
* WHERE…SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.
* WHEN… FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY.
* IMPACTS…TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT.
The new Wolf Creek highlights have not yet been issued.
Next Update Monday afternoon. Thanks for following and supporting the page!
May be you fans know the answer to this-why are we only seeing “winter weather advisories” and not “winter storm watch” or “winter storm warning”? These amounts seem like they merit winter storm warnings!
Laurie good question I will explain in my afternoon update!
At some point I would like to better understand the impact on modeling for our area of the new Doppler radar, if any. Will it improve the model outcomes or just give better short term expectations? We’ve received maybe 6” out of this storm, way below the model predictions and we’re 6 miles east of Bayfield just south of 160 at 7350 elevation. Very disappointing modeling!
It will definitely improve the model performance. Especially with the hi-res models. This was a tricky storm as I have said many times since Friday.
Thank you for all of your help and info keeping us safe.
Heading over wolf creek to Denver tomorrow. Advice?
Here in downtown Durango we scored about 8 inches with .75 snow to liquid ratio. Around 10 o’clock last night I was outside where it was snowing/ raining fiercely. Yeah!!!!!