Published at 12:15 pm Thursday 1/28/21
On Friday the front associated with the atmospheric river (AR) event in California will move into Nevada, then Arizona and Utah. Mammoth Mountain will end up with about 7 feet of new snow at the base and 9 feet at the summit from this storm cycle.
Interestingly enough, AR events like this are rated on a scale of 1 to 5, based on duration and moisture transport. This event is rated a 2…
As I said over the weekend, it is rare for these AR events to deliver big moisture to our area, we will likely only be getting a couple to a few inches of snow Friday night into Saturday. Then the storm will move east, reload, and then strengthen with moisture drawn up from the Gulf of Mexico as it makes its way into the midwest.
Aside from a few flurries Friday morning from Purgatory northward, the main precipitation bands should not hit the forecast area until early Friday evening. If you are at 6,500 feet or lower, you will want the precipitation to arrive a little later (around 8 pm) if you want it to all fall as snow. The snow should wrap and move quickly Saturday morning.
All said and done, I am expecting 1 to 3 inches across the lower elevations. 3 to 6 inches are likely across the mid-elevations, with 4 to 8 for Purgatory, Mayday, and Telluride. Wolf Creek should be able to accumulate 8 to 12 inches. I will dial this in a little better Friday afternoon.
Here are the latest model runs for this storm. There was a problem with the Canadian model this morning so I don’t have that data.
The German is a believable outlier. What I mean by that is the model is suggesting a more westerly flow towards the end of the storm. This results in higher totals for areas that favor westerly flow. I can’t count that out. Another 24 hours should allow the models to come together on a more cohesive solution. I would be very encouraged if I woke up to higher model totals tomorrow morning.
The next system will be wetter but slightly warmer. It should arrive late Tuesday or early Wednesday. Models are in agreement that this will be a bigger precipitation producer than Friday night’s storm, but they differ on how much will fall in the lower elevations. At the moment the Euro is more bullish. That storm should wrap up on Thursday, but I am already seeing another storm coming in Friday the 5th for the weekend.
Next Update Friday afternoon, thanks for following and supporting the site!