Snow Tonight

Published at  12:45 pm 1 Friday 1/29/21

The biggest change in the last 24 hours has been a couple of the models producing higher amounts of precipitation for Telluride, Ouray, Silverton, and Wolf Creek.

A winter weather advisory has been issued for sub-advisory snow. In other words, as I explained a few days ago, they bent the rules to issue the advisory. Here it is:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
333 AM MST FRI JAN 29 2021

COZ019-292200-
/O.NEW.KGJT.WW.Y.0007.210130T0000Z-210130T1500Z/
SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF SILVERTON, RICO, AND HESPERUS
333 AM MST FRI JAN 29 2021

…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM MST SATURDAY…

* WHAT…SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ABOVE 9000 FEET. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 40 MPH.

* WHERE…SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.

* WHEN…FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM MST SATURDAY.

* IMPACTS…TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT, ESPECIALLY OVER
MOUNTAIN PASSES.

I would be very surprised if Telluride and Ouray are not added to the advisory.  As the storm departs winds will change to a more favorable flow for the Northwest San Juans. There should enough moisture leftover to develop some heavier snow showers in those areas Saturday morning.

The German ICON model picked up on this yesterday, the other models picked up on it this morning.

Here are the latest model runs I am using for my forecast.

Euro

GFS

German

NAM 3km

Here is the current (noon) surface map showing the system heading our way from western Utah.

High mountain snow showers are possible this afternoon, the heaviest snow in all areas should start after 9 pm (hopefully, later than that).

Here is the animated future radar beginning at 5 pm this evening, ending at 1 pm Saturday. The blue is snow, the darker the blue, the heavier the snow.

The forecast is a little tricky for low elevations because of temperatures. But here is what I have.

Cortez, Farmington, Aztec 0 to 2 inches.

Durango, Mancos, Bayfield 1 to 3 inches.

Mid-elevations 2 to 5 inches, higher amounts are possible above 7,800 feet.

Pagosa 3 to 6 inches.

Purgatory 4 to 7 inches.

Telluride, Ouray, Silverton, Mayday 5 to 9 inches.

Wolf Creek 8 to 12 inches.

The models are still trying to work out the details on the next storm which should arrive very late Tuesday or early Wednesday. The Euro is showing a decent event setting up, the other models have not yet completely embraced the situation.

Next Update Saturday morning, unless something comes up before that. Thanks for following and supporting the page!

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