Published Tuesday 2/2/21 at 12:30 pm
Here is the latest Winter Weather Advisory. I think it covers the high elevations pretty well (>8,800 feet).
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF TELLURIDE, OURAY, LAKE CITY, SILVERTON,
RICO, AND HESPERUS
1029 AM MST TUE FEB 2 2021
…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM MST THURSDAY…
* WHAT…SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. LESSER AMOUNTS BELOW 8000 FEET. HIGHER ELEVATIONS CAN EXPECT WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 45 MPH.
* WHERE…NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.
* WHEN…FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM MST THURSDAY.
* IMPACTS…TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT. AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW WILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES.
There are still a lot of details to work out. Here is what I can tell you so far. Light snow showers should break out at or above 9,000 feet overnight into Wednesday morning. Light rain showers should start by late morning Wednesday across the lower and mid-elevation areas. The majority of the precipitation below 7,400 will fall as rain. There will be a brief period before the front rolls through Wednesday night where snow will fall in the mid-elevations, with a dusting by Thursday morning in the lower elevations.
Wolf Creek will accumulate the most snow, likely 9 to 12 inches by the time it is done. Telluride will have light accumulations until Wednesday evening, at the moment it looks like 8 to 10 inches by the end of Thursday. Friday night will bring another shot of snow to Telluride and Ouray. The biggest question at the moment is Purgatory. I am seeing model runs producing anywhere from 2 to 7 inches of snow. Based on the southwest flow, and the burst of heavier snow with the arrival of the colder air Wednesday night, I am leaning towards the models that are producing heavier storm totals. For now, I am in the 5 to 8-inch camp but I may revise that tomorrow morning.
Here is what the Euro is putting out for totals liquid.
Yesterday, I talked about the pattern change that will leave most of the area high and dry for a while. I also mentioned that sometimes when the Polar Vortex drops into the Midwest and Great Lakes it eventually retrogrades west and flattens the ridge which allows moisture back into the western states. When this happens the combination of moisture and cold air can produce some amazing snow.
This was perfectly illustrated in the Euro’s morning run for day 10 which is the end of that model’s cycle.
Here is what that looks like. This is Friday, February 12th.
Here are the temps.
For forecasters, this is like ending an exciting movie 10 minutes before it’s over. Yes, it is 10 days away, but it will be an exciting time if the Euro continues in this direction.
Next Update Wednesday morning. Thanks for following and supporting the site!