Published Tuesday 2/9/21 at 12:45 pm
Not a lot has changed since my last post. I was leaning towards slightly boosting the totals I had through yesterday. This was based on the brand new Euro run, but, I am just not seeing enough from the other models to support that decision. Temperatures are not going to be particularly cold enough to increase the snow to liquid ratios, so I am going to leave everything where I had it yesterday. If you missed it this is what I had.
Telluride, Ouray, Silverton (town), Rico 3 to 6 inches.
Purgatory and Wolf Creek 2 to 4 inches.
Mid-elevations 0 to 2 inches.
Lower elevations may get a dusting before melting.
The next batch of snow will come in on Friday through Saturday according to the GFS, Euro, and Canadian models. The Canadian brings a heavier batch of snow on Saturday evening, while the GFS and Euro wait until Sunday.
To attempt to time the starts and stops of the different systems between Friday and next Wednesday does not make a lot of sense just yet. But I am pleased with the consensus I see over the 5 day period. Here are the current precipitation totals between Friday morning the 12th and next Wednesday morning the 17th.
If you missed my commentary a couple of weeks ago, I refer to this as a setup where the models may be right for the wrong reasons. They agree on a snowy period of 5 days. They don’t exactly agree on when specifically it is all going to happen, but they mostly agree on significant 5-day event totals. At the moment it looks like the heaviest precipitation will fall while it is cold enough for snow in all locations.
Here are the preliminary 5-day snow totals (Friday morning through Wednesday morning) based on a 10 to 1 snow to liquid ratio. If the temperature forecasts are correct, the ratios should be much higher than that in the mountains.
Next Update Wednesday, thanks for following and supporting the site!