Friday Afternoon Update

Published Friday 2/12/21 at 12:45 pm

I really miss the “easy” storms. The ones that have no issues with elevation and temperature. The ones where I don’t sound like a broken record putting out a lot of caveats. Unfortunately, that will not be the case.

Models have been pretty consistent over the last week filtering in cold air. That is, until a couple of days ago when the Euro went rogue and started suggesting that the lower elevations were going to be warm for a couple or more hours before changing over to snow. Despite that, the models still show a lot of beneficial moisture on the way, which is what we all want!

Because we still have at least 24 hours before the precipitation begins filtering into the area, I will share the maps with you, but I won’t dig in too deeply until tomorrow. If you are rooting for good snow below 7,300 feet, you also need to root for the storm to slow down and arrive later on Saturday, preferably after dark. At the moment most models are currently predicting that the precipitation should start between noon and 3 pm.

People ask me how I come up with the elevations for rain /snow/mix. While there is not a specific model parameter that shows the projected elevations, there is a parameter that forecasts atmospheric pressure, and with that, I can calculate the elevations. When the weather slows down in the spring I will probably do a post on how that works.

Here are the precipitation totals from the latest model runs.





And the Euro, which trended up slightly with its latest run.

Here is another model that I usually consult but I have had some issues with its accuracy. Not to be confused with the WPC (Weather Prediction Center) blended model, this is the NDFD (National Digital Forecast Database) model which is a unique blend from the National Weather Service. Because it uses data from the NWS offices, it sometimes misses because we are not close to a full data-gathering NWS office. The graphics are beautiful and I wish all of the other models I have access to had this output.

I hope to be able to get two updates out tomorrow before the precipitation starts. The first will cover the overnight and the high-resolution morning models, as well as any updated Warnings and Advisories. The second will be to cover the latest runs from the big three models that I always cover around noon.

Keep your fingers crossed for a late-arriving storm. Thanks for following and supporting the site!


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