Published Saturday 2/13/21 at 7 am
I will sort through all of the models in detail in my next post, but here is a brief summary. The models are not necessarily slowing the storm down, however, they are delaying the onset of precipitation into the lower elevations, which greatly increases the chances of more snow than rain for areas above 6,500 feet. That doesn’t mean it will start as snow everywhere, but when it does change over, it will stay all snow.
The other encouraging thing this morning is that the US models were wrong with the overnight temperature forecast by 7 to 9 degrees (too warm). The overnight Euro has been showing snow levels right at 6,500 feet this afternoon and it nailed the overnight low. This is doesn’t lock in the snow but it is a good sign.
Numerous new Warning and Advisories were issued overnight. I think this was a prudent move. They expanded the highlights to include low and mid-elevations and increased mountain totals.
COZ022-131830-
/O.EXB.KGJT.WW.Y.0013.210214T0000Z-210215T0600Z/
ANIMAS RIVER BASIN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF DURANGO, BAYFIELD, AND IGNACIO
330 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2021
…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM MST SUNDAY…
* WHAT…SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES. EXPECT HIGHER AMOUNTS HEADING TOWARDS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
* WHERE…ANIMAS RIVER BASIN.
* WHEN…FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM MST SUNDAY.
* IMPACTS…TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
COZ023-131830-
/O.EXB.KGJT.WS.W.0003.210214T0000Z-210215T0600Z/
SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF PAGOSA SPRINGS
330 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2021
…WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
11 PM MST SUNDAY…
* WHAT…HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 10 INCHES. EXPECT HEAVIER AMOUNTS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
* WHERE…SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN.
* WHEN…FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM MST SUNDAY.
* IMPACTS…TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
COZ019-131830-
/O.CON.KGJT.WS.W.0003.210213T1800Z-210215T0600Z/
SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF SILVERTON, RICO, AND HESPERUS
330 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2021
…WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM MST SUNDAY…
* WHAT…HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ABOVE TIMBERLINE. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 40 MPH.
* WHERE…SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.
* WHEN…FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM MST SUNDAY. THE HEAVIEST SNOW RATES ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
* IMPACTS…TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
355 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2021
COZ068-131900-
/O.CON.KPUB.WS.W.0002.210214T0000Z-210215T0000Z/
(Wolf Creek) EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET-
355 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2021
…WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY…
* WHAT…HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
FEET. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 45 MPH.
* WHERE…EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET.
* WHEN…FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY.
* IMPACTS…TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT OVER WOLF CREEK PASS
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
COZ018-131830-
/O.CON.KGJT.WW.Y.0013.210213T1800Z-210215T0600Z/
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF TELLURIDE, OURAY, AND LAKE CITY
330 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2021
…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS
MORNING TO 11 PM MST SUNDAY…
* WHAT…SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 15
INCHES. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 40 MPH.
* WHERE…NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.
* WHEN…FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM MST SUNDAY. THE HEAVIEST SNOW RATES ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
* IMPACTS…TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
I will try to have the new Update out by 1 pm at the latest. I am very encouraged by what I have seen, and I am looking forward to the release of the next suite of model runs. Thanks for following and supporting the page!