Congratulations, we have made it through the warmest time of day! So far my expectations have been exceeded and I am anxious to see how the rest of this pans out.
The afternoon high-resolution model was very similar to this morning’s run. The NWS pointed this out in their forecast discussion which led to them upgrading the Durango area’s Winter Weather Advisory to a Winter Storm Warning for 4 to 8 inches. They also issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Cortez, Dolores, and Mancos for 2 to 5 inches. I would not be surprised if Dolores and Mancos exceeded those amounts.
There were a couple of my earlier forecasts that may be too low.
Mid-elevation areas including Durango West 1&2, Lake Durango, Rafter J, Long Hollow, Edgemont, Forest Lakes, Durango Ridge Ranch, Durango Hills below 7,700 feet: 8 to 14 inches with slightly lower amounts for Shenandoah and Trappers Crossing below 7,400 feet. I would not be surprised to see up to 18 inches in some of these areas. Especially, Dwest(s), Forest Lakes, Durango Hills, and DRR. I also forgot to mention Falls Creek over 7,500 feet.
Mayday, Purgatory, Durango Hills at or above 7,700, Tween Lakes, Trew Creek, Los Ranchitos, Lemon, Vallecito above 7,700 feet: 10 to 16 inches. Higher amounts are possible in Mayday, Lemon, and Vallecito. Up to 20 inches are possible in some of these locations.
Wolf Creek could see 18 to 24+.
Here is the latest afternoon run of the high-resolution NAM 3km model. These totals are from 11 am today through late Sunday night.
I started this post a little earlier, but I just went out to measure at 4:30. DWest2 at 7,450′ has had 4 1/2 inches so far and moderate snow is falling. If you like to measure snow, remember to clear early and often, especially during this warm portion of the storm before the cooler temps filter in late tonight.
I look forward to your reports. Thanks for following and supporting the site!