Published Sunday 2/14/21 at Noon
I will discuss the next short wave trough heading into our area at the end of this post. First, let’s jump into the snow reports. I just realized it started snowing again here. Obviously, some of the reports are old, some are new because I am adding and amending totals as I write this.
I sorted these by reported totals to make it easier (for me).
3 to 4 inches: Aztec and Arboles
5 inches: Cortez and Silverton
6 to 6.5 inches: Marvel and Montrose
7 inches: 3 miles north of the Durango airport
7.5 inches: Rico
8 inches: North of Mancos
8.5 inches: Durango in town and Skyridge, Bayfield in town
9 inches: South of Mancos at the Base of Weber Mountain, Purgatory
10 inches: North side of Hermosa, Alpine Shadows, Cherry Creek Mountain Ranch
10.5 inches: Timberline midway up, Oxford and Lightner Creek
11 inches: Falls Creek and Gem Village
11.5 inches: Top of Timberline
12 inches: Turtle Lake, Three Springs, Tecolote, Bottom of Durango Hills, Celadon, Rockwood, Edgemont Ranch, Rafter J, South of Mancos Hill
13 inches: DurangoWest 2, Twin Creek (Pagosa)
13.5 inches: Tamarron/Glacier
14 inches: Edgemont Highlands
15 inches: Horsegulch, Pine River Ranch north of Bayfield, CR502&228 intersection
16 inches: Upper portion of Deer Valley (east of Bayfield), NW of Hatcher Lake (Pagosa)
17 inches: Lower Forest Lakes
18 inches: Forest Lakes (midway up), Los Ranchitos
19.5 inches: North end of Vallecito
21.5 inches: Top of Aspen Trails at 8,000 feet
22.25 inches: Top of Forest Lakes at 8,000 feet
Some of the heaviest 24-hour totals we have seen in the mid and lower elevations this season! The storm clearly favored the eastern areas of La Plata County. It also looks like some energy drifted just far enough south to limit the lift needed for Purgatory to do well. Rarely do Mancos and Bayfield give Purgatory a run for the money!
The models have a lot to work out on the storm track of this system. What I can tell you is that at the moment, it looks like it is going to be a 2 to 5-inch event for most. Oddly enough, the track that I am seeing on the Euro shows the most snow to the North around Telluride and to the South along the New Mexico border. The good news is this will be a high ratio event, with snow levels starting at around 5,000 feet then falling Monday night.
The GFS and Canadian are showing slightly more precipitation than the Euro. Out of all of the other morning model runs from yesterday morning, The Euro performed worst.
Next Update Monday afternoon, thanks for all of the great reports, and thanks for following and supporting the site!