Monday Morning Update

Published Monday 2/15/21 at 9 am

This morning is an example of “sometimes it just snows”. Upper-level temperatures are favorable for snow and there is still ample moisture overhead. As a result, light flurries continue in many areas.

The snow reports were a big hit, so I plan to do that with every storm. Yesterday when I posted them, I said that since it was still snowing that many of the totals would increase. By the time I put out the post, my total in DWest2 had gone up. I hadn’t measured since around 7 am because I was clearing snow and writing the Update. Snow continued at the resorts throughout the day as well. Telluride ended up with 9 inches, Purgatory ended up with an event total of 14 inches and Wolf Creek climbed to 29 inches.  When I originally made my forecast, I said that the totals were through Monday morning. When I post my forecast this afternoon, it will be from tonight, Monday evening, through Wednesday morning.

The models are still not yet all on board with the storm track, the wind direction, and temperatures for this event. In fact, there is a 9-degree temperature spread in the models for overnight temperatures.  The models all agree on all snow for the event, but the current temperature spread could affect totals by 50% or more.

This is still looking mostly like a 3 to 6-inch event for most areas, with some upside surprises of 8 or more inches. Telluride and the northern San Juans won’t be favored until Tuesday for heavier snow, they will likely end up with the highest totals in the forecast area.

I don’t anticipate anything happening earlier than 6 pm, the best energy for southern areas will kick in around midnight.

This system also is the type that ends up with leftovers which could keep light snow going through the day on Wednesday.

My next Update should be up by 3 or 4 pm this afternoon.

There are already advisories in place, I am going to wait to post them until this afternoon in case they tweak them or upgrade them.

They are currently at 2 to 4 inches for the lower elevations, with 6 to 9 for higher elevations.

Next Update late Monday afternoon, thanks for following and supporting the site!

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