Published Tuesday 2/16/21 at 10:45 am
My concerns that I was too low for the snow totals out west and down south were warranted. My concerns for Purgatory and Wolf Creek being too high were warranted as well.
The problem? I drank the Koolaid, I followed the guidance from the National Weather Service’s blended NDFD model. Monday morning, I mentioned that I was having a difficult time justifying the Advisory for the Southwest San Juans. Then I saw the NDFD showing much higher amounts for those areas. I used that model for Purgatory, Wolf Creek, and the mid-elevations of La Plata, County. Clearly, I was wishcasting instead of forecasting.
Telluride had already received 7 inches as of early this morning, it is likely they have a lot more on the way! 8 to 12 inches additional should fall between this morning and Thursday morning. I am basing that off the NAM3km, the GFS, and the Euro.
For the rest of us, expect an extended lull in the precipitation. Scattered light snow showers will be possible with another round of light snow likely Wednesday evening.
Here are the latest snow totals through Tuesday morning:
Up to 2 inches: Durango, Vallecito,Tamarron, Gem Village
Up to 3 inches: Hermosa Valley, Forest Lakes, Aspen Trails @8,000 feet
4 inches: Marvel, Silverton, Lemon, Trappers Crossing, Durango West
5 to 6 inches: Mancos, North and South Mancos, Cortez, Mc Elmo Canyon, Bondad
7.5 inches: 1 mile north of Farmington at 7,000 feet
As you can see, the main energy of the storm made it into Montezuma County, then dropped southwest into Northern New Mexico.
It appears a couple of systems will move in for the weekend, but my confidence is low for the systems coming far enough south to affect most of the forecast area. I will be keeping an eye on the situation as always.
Thanks for the reports, if you find yourself under a heavier than expected snow shower throughout the day let me know.
My next Update will be Wednesday afternoon. Hopefully, we will be able to coax a couple of more inches of snow for Purgatory, Wolf Creek, and the lower and mid-elevations. Telluride and Ouray should be in great shape over the next couple of days.