Published Wednesday 2/17/21 11:45 am
A small disturbance will drift down into Colorado later today. The flow will not be favorable for most areas but a few areas will see light accumulations.
At the moment it looks like 2 to 4 inches will fall in Telluride with 1 to 3 inches for Silverton and Ouray. Wolf Creek and Purgatory could get 1 to 2 inches in spillover precipitation from this disturbance. Flurries may fall in the mid-elevations and a dusting of snow could accumulate down to Glacier, Lemon, and Vallecito.
Telluride had a big day yesterday and ended up with 17 inches for the event. Wolf Creek added a couple of inches last night.
There is a chance of snow for Saturday night and the next decent chance for most of us will be around Thursday, February 25th.
I expect the models to be compromised in the coming days. We are looking at a large Continental-sized pattern change over the next several days. That is good news for folks across the Midwest, Great Lakes, the South, and especially Texas, where they will finally warm back up and hopefully be able to restore power and water to the multi-millions there affected by the Polar Vortex.
The bad news for weather fans is that a pattern shift of this magnitude will affect weather model performance as the models try to figure out how the future pattern will evolve. The two most likely options are that either we end up in a more zonal pattern, with the jet stream basically going across the middle of the Continental US (Conus), or we end up with a trough over the western half of the Conus. Either of those solutions could be beneficial for our area, but it will be difficult to put too much faith into model solutions until this pattern change occurs.
Next Update Thursday. Thanks for following and supporting the site.