Nothing To See Here…

Thursday 2/18/21 at 1:10 pm

Not for a while anyway. The next small system will affect the northern portion of the forecast area, favoring the Northwest San Juans on Saturday night. At the moment, the models are forecasting sub-advisory amounts.

Currently, the GFS is showing the highest totals with a potential Gorge event possible. Here is the latest GFS.

Right now, the future looks pretty quiet on the individual model runs. These are referred to as the deterministic model runs. The other type of model runs are the mean runs for the model family. They are called ensemble models. The Euro Ensemble has 52 model members,  the GFS Ensemble has 22 model members and the Canadian Ensemble has 20 model members.

Here is the Euro ensemble run showing anomalously high or low pressure between Monday 2/22 through Monday 3/1.

Euro ensemble run 2/18/21 12z

The warmer colors of yellow, orange and red tones represent high pressure, where storms are less likely to develop. The cooler colors of blue, green, and gray represent below normal pressure, where storms are likely to occur. Ensemble models, in my opinion, are not a great tool for short-term forecasts in our area but are very good at indicating long-term patterns.

Next Update Saturday, thanks for following and supporting the site.

Click here to donate

Click here to contact

Leave a Reply